RESUMEN
Introduction: the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries, with the largest portion occurring in Africa. Results from earlier baseline measures on obesity, diabetes and hypertension (ODH) in the Tenke Fungurume Mining (TFM) workforce in 2010 showed high proportions of overweight, pre-diabetic and pre-hypertensive individuals, predicting an upward trend in the burden of ODH over time. The 2010-2015 longitudinal trends on ODH and related risk factors among the TFM workforce is presented herein, and projects the consequent burden of these diseases on the workforce by 2025 if an effective prevention program is not implemented.Methods: a longitudinal, retrospective cohort study with 3-time intervals was conducted using occupational health records collected on all employees and contractors who had a pre-employment or follow up medical checkups covering the period between January 2010 and December 2015. Repeated paired t tests measured changes in mean values of quantitative risk factors, while a chi-square test assessed changes in prevalence and categorical risk factors over time. A linear projection model was used to predict the consequent morbidity of ODH for the subsequent 10 years up to 2025.Results: between 2010 and 2015, prevalence increased from 4.5% to 11.1% for obesity, 11.9% to 15.6% for diabetes, and 18.2% to 26.5% for hypertension. By 2025, provided no prevention program is implemented, prevalence is predicted to reach 25%, 24% and 42% respectively for obesity, diabetes and hypertension.Conclusion: without implementation of a comprehensive NCD prevention plan, the burden of ODH and other NCDs is predicted to increase dramatically in the TFM workforce. Alone or combined, NCDs have the potential to dramatically increase operational costs while decreasing productivity over time